Tag: opinion polls

Surveying Canadian Jews

“Canada’s Jewish community is divided over Israeli and domestic Canadian politics, even though rising antisemitism and war seem to have increased the emotional attachment of Canada’s Jews to Israel,” writes sociologist Robert Brym in the executive summary of Arguments for the Sake of Heaven: A Jewish Community Divided. The report imparts the results of a poll sponsored by the New Israel Fund of Canada, JSpaceCanada, and Canadian Friends of Peace Now.

From Aug. 28 to Sept. 16, 2024, the polling firm Leger surveyed 588 Canadian Jews. The sample “was drawn from a large online panel of Canadian adults. It was weighted by characteristics of the Canadian Jewish population based on the 2021 Census of Canada and the 2018 Survey of Jews in Canada,” which was prepared by Brym, Keith Neuman and Rhonda Lenton for the Environics Institute, University of Toronto, and York University. The composition of the sample “is believed to be broadly representative of Canadian Jewry.”

“We undertook this survey in response to conservative establishment Jewish institutions and anti-Zionist Jewish groups co-creating a polarized, black-and-white public debate that didn’t reflect the diverse, nuanced Jewish community we know and love,” write Maytal Kowalski, JSpaceCanada executive director, Gabriella Goliger, national chair of Canadian Friends of Peace Now, and Ben Murane, executive director of NIF Canada, in the introduction to the report, which was released last month.

“Our research confirms that there is no such thing as ‘the Jewish community’s opinion’ as a monolith, nor can any segment of the community (or any institution) claim to speak for all others. In many cases, we see no majority opinion as well as high levels of uncertainty. Therefore, not only are claims of monolithic support misrepresentations of Canadian Jewish diversity, they also erase the spirited nature of Jewish life in Canada.”

image - Arguments for the Sake of Heaven coverExplaining the report’s title, they note: “One of the noblest ideals in Judaism is ‘arguments for the sake of heaven’ – that disagreement and debate are in fact coveted and celebrated as long as the disagreement is ‘for the sake of heaven,’ meaning an argument that seeks to uncover truth.”

They call upon “Jewish communal leaders to uphold and support the variety of opinions and ideas held by Canadian Jews – and to foster arguments for the sake of heaven,” and warn that “Canadian political leaders must engage all of Canada’s Jewish communities and not stereotype us based on a false monolith.”

Brym lists the poll’s highlights, which include that “Canadian Jews express stronger emotional attachment to Israel than in four previous surveys dating back to 2018. Specifically, 84% of Canada’s Jews say they are ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ emotionally attached to Israel [compared to 79% in 2018]. Ninety-four percent support the existence of Israel as a Jewish state.”

Brym notes, “Just 3% say Israel lacks that right, while another 3% say they don’t know or don’t answer the question. Belief in Israel’s right to exist does not vary significantly by gender, educational attainment, income or denomination. It does vary significantly by age and political party support. Ninety-eight percent of those over the age of 34 say Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state, compared to 81% of those under the age of 35. Ninety-seven percent of Conservative and Liberal party supporters say that Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state. Some 79% of NDP supporters concur, although the number of NDP supporters in the sample is too small to provide a highly reliable estimate.”

When asked “Do you consider yourself a Zionist?” however, 51% of respondents said yes, 15% claimed ambivalence, 27% said no and 7% said they didn’t know, or didn’t answer the question.

“Given their strong emotional attachment to Israel and their nearly universal belief that Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state, one might be tempted to speculate that more Canadian Jews do not consider themselves Zionists because they confuse Zionism with certain policies of the Netanyahu government that they find objectionable,” writes Brym. “Future research needs to probe this issue.”

When asked whether continued building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank helped, harmed or didn’t make a difference to the security of Israel, 34% of respondents said it hurts Israel’s security while 27% said it helps, 22% thought it made no difference and 18% didn’t know or didn’t answer.

Half of respondents favoured a two-state solution, while 25% wanted an Israeli state (the annexation of West Bank and Gaza), while 8% believe that “the best resolution to the conflict is a single, secular, binational state that favours equal rights for Jews and Palestinians.”

“When asked whether Canadian politicians should increase pressure on Israel and the Palestinians to engage in a meaningful peace process, 55% of Canadian Jews agree and 23% disagree,” summarizes Brym. “When asked whether politicians should sanction Jewish West Bank settlers who engage in acts of vigilante violence against Palestinian civilians, 35% of Canadian Jews agree and 41% disagree. When asked whether politicians should recognize a Palestinian state in the near future, 21% of Canadian Jews agree and 53% disagree. When asked whether Canadian politicians should impose an embargo on the arms trade with Israel, 69% of Canadian Jews say no and 10% say yes.”

The survey also asked respondents to rank, in view of an upcoming federal election, their priorities among 11 different issues. From most to least important were cost of living, antisemitism, health care, housing, Israel-Palestine conflict, climate change and environment, crime and public safety, immigration, threats posed by China and Russia, discrimination against Indigenous people, and Islamophobia.

The question was asked, “Which political party did you vote for in the last (2021) federal election?” and also “If a Canadian federal election were held tomorrow, which party, if any, would you vote for?”

“Among decided voters, support for the New Democratic Party remained steady at about 9% between 2021 and 2024,” writes Brym. “Support for the Liberal party fell from 39% to 26%. And support for the Conservative party increased from 36% to 55%. These trends are similar to those in the general population, but the decline in Liberal support and increase in Conservative support is more pronounced among Jews.”

The whole report can be found at jspacecanada.ca/arguments_sake_of_heaven. It includes much more data – including more analysis of responses according to age, gender, level of education, household income, denominational identification and political party support – as well as commentary and recommendations from the survey’s three sponsoring organizations. 

To give up is un-Israeli

Israelis might be among the world’s most resilient people. Across 75 years of constant war or threats of war, terrorism, geopolitical isolation and global political assault, the Israeli people have built one of the world’s strongest democracies and most powerful economies.

Faced with an endless succession of external existential threats, not to mention internal divisions, Israelis have fought hard to survive and build the sort of state that accommodates, however imperfectly, the diversity of Jewish (and non-Jewish) identities encompassed by the population.

This is now under threat. The current government’s efforts to chip away at democratic structures is a grievous concern. And the political disruption is having demonstrative economic impacts as well. The “startup nation” has seen investment nosedive this year. In the first half of 2023, private financing fell 29% from the previous six-month period and 67% from the same period a year earlier.

While the economic numbers are the most tangible measure of the dangers of political instability and skirmishes, an opinion poll number stands out as at least as grave. A survey last month indicated that 28% of Israelis are considering leaving the country.

A recent feature story about a colony of expat Israelis who have made Hebrew a common sound on the streets of Thailand cited affordability and a laid-back lifestyle as among the draws that have brought more than 100 families to the town of Ko Pha Ngan in the last year alone. These families joined hundreds of Israelis who had already set up homes there. The Times of Israel reports most migrants cite Israel’s “pressure cooker” atmosphere as a leading reason for their move. We get that. People deserve to live the lives they want.

What is more challenging to understand is Israelis who are motivated to quit the country because they don’t like its political direction. The same opinion poll that said more than a quarter of Israelis are considering emigration showed that the current government would be headed for (by Israeli standards) a decisive defeat if an election were held now. Shouldn’t that count for something?

A plurality of Israelis seems poised to oust the government (if given the chance) and yet, rather than seeing this poll as a harbinger of hope, the children and grandchildren of those who persevered against enormous and impossible odds to rebuild the Jewish homeland are ready to give up the fight. (And, of course, we mean “fight” figuratively. Despite the fact that 56% of Israelis worry about civil war, the institutions the current government is attacking, though battered, are still strong and should not yet be dismissed as ineffectual.) If 28% of Israelis left, you can bet that the government that most of them oppose and which led them to abandon their homeland would be reelected in a landslide and be given a free hand to remake the country in the image they want.

We are worried by the apparent depth and breadth of the hopelessness. But hundreds of thousands of Israelis not only wish to change the government, they are taking to the streets every single week for many months to register their disapproval. Many of these are people who have never before engaged in politics. If the current government is traveling down untrodden paths of autocracy and iniquity, it is not meaningless that an enormous movement is amassing in response, potentially laying the foundation for a future sea change.

A lesson from close to home might be instructive. In the 1980s, British Columbia’s Social Credit government instituted a “restraint program” inspired by Reaganomics and Thatcherism that led to mass marches in the streets. Hopelessness gave way to one of the biggest mass mobilizations in the province’s history, in the form of Operation Solidarity. Long story short, that opposition movement, in a sense, emerged into the movement that is now dominant and that has transformed the province, the New Democratic Party having won one of the biggest majority governments in history, in 2020. John Horgan, the former premier who led the New Democrats to that huge victory, was inspired to get involved in politics during that tumultuous earlier time.

Presumably, an entire new generation of Israeli leaders are likewise being forged in reaction to the current developments. Whether they have the impact that British Columbia’s opposition movement-cum-government has had depends on whether they turn this moment into a lasting movement.

If we can point to any reason to lose hope, it is less the direction of the current government than, on the other side, the loss of hope and determination itself. If the policies of the current government seem un-Israeli to many of us, it seems no less un-Israeli to look at an existential challenge and give up.