A look to the Jewish future

EDGAR ASHER ISRANET

As the Jewish year 5767 is consigned to the history books, we turn our attention to the hopes and aspirations of the new year – not an easy job. It is not as if we can start 5768 with a clean slate. Perhaps spiritually, we are able to achieve this goal, but politically, it is impossible, as we carry over all the gains and loses that have been made in previous years.

Even as the line is drawn under the balances of 5767, we find that uncertainties and concerns remain. With just under a week of the old year remaining, tension between Syria and Israel erupted when it was reported by Syria that Israel Air Force planes had been fired on by Syrian anti-aircraft defences when they flew over the northern Syrian coastal town of Latakia. Perhaps Israel is always flying over Syrian territory undetected, but this time, it was found out. What is certain is that Syria is spoiling for a fight with Israel. Syria is a belligerent enemy with many internal problems. Hatred of Israel is the country's only unifying factor. The depth of its hate can turn rhetoric into conflict in a matter of hours.

Added to all this is the Iran factor. Iran has told Syria that it will have full support from its Arab neighbor if it decides to go to war against Israel. Such a confrontation would give Iran the excuse it is looking for to involve itself in the eastern Mediterranean.

It would not stop there. Israel would be forced to take action against Iran, which, in turn, could see an East-West confrontation across the whole region, from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean. This would be a confrontation in which Russia could not remain silent, as it supplies so much of the weaponry in the region and never acts as an honest broker, particularly where Israel in concerned.

The Arabs do not learn by defeat and, today, they are carried forward on the winds of Arab heroes like Osama Bin-Laden and a culture of a fantastic life in the hereafter, which manifests itself in the low value for human life and the scourge of the suicide bomber.

Is Israel ready for such confrontation – a confrontation that it cannot afford to lose? The answer is no. The new year finds Israel like a big, rudderless ship. The captain is only a midshipman; he knows little of the vagaries of the treacherous ocean currents, as his experience of guiding such a large vessel is very limited. Added to this, he finds himself with the serious problem of not being able to steer properly, even if he knew how.

Thus, Israel finds itself with a leader who is perhaps the most unpopular prime minister ever. In 2006, Ehud Olmert led Israel into a war that he was completely unable to handle. He was assisted by an equally inexperienced defence minister and chief of staff. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF), the pride of the nation, fought a bloody few weeks in a manner dictated by its enemy.

The new year will see a revitalized IDF. The lesson was learned and the shortcomings are being corrected in double quick time. The IDF is now being led by an experienced professional soldier with a proven track record. It will take time to right the wrongs, but Israel's enemies should not be complacent about the ability of the country's fighting force.

The political expectations are less well defined. Corruption and nepotism are still serious concerns at government and local levels. Several high-profile investigations are pending and will, in all probability, be resolved in the coming year. There is also a movement to change the way members of the Knesset are elected. Instead of the present system of MKs having allegiance to a party, they will be elected on a basis of local representation and be answerable to a local constituency. However, the chances of this happening in the coming year are almost nil, because not only would the Knesset consist of an entirely different type of politician, but most of the present MKs would never be elected.

The big question for 5768 is what will transpire between the Palestinians and Israel. Perhaps if Israel and the Palestinians had been left alone to sort out their own troubles, the problem would have been solved a long time ago. But we know this not to be so and the extremists and fundamentalists keep the confrontation on the boil.

This year will see Gaza and the West Bank being treated as two separate entities. There are two fundamental questions that have to be addressed. Is Israel willing to relinquish its control over East Jerusalem, and what is to be done about Gaza?

The Israeli government has been ambiguous and indecisive on both these vital and issues. There is nobody in Israel who would not like to see Israel and the Palestinians living in peace and harmony side by side. It is also clear that most Israelis would not agree to negotiate the sovereignty of Jerusalem under any circumstances. If this is the case, why not say so?

This matter is made worse by the international community refusing to accept Jerusalem as the nation's capital. I have often felt that this issue should be taken out of the equation by declaring another location, perhaps one to be purpose-built, as Israel's political capital. This would make the question of Jerusalem much easier to handle and make gentle compromises that do not restrict the aspiration of Jews and Muslims to the centrality of Jerusalem. There is also a Christian dimension in all this, something that the Palestinians never address.

Gaza has become a radical, fundamentalist part of the Palestinian territories. The state within a state will continue to be ruled and dominated by Hamas. Hamas and Fatah will only be united by their illogical hatred of Israel. For how long is Israel going to put up with the almost daily round of rockets that are fired from within the hell of Gaza? Not only does Israel continue to suffer the attacks, but it continues to supply its enemy with the wherewithal to maintain its aggression. In 5768, the Israeli government will have to ask itself why it continues to supply electricity, water, fuel and medical supplies to an entity that is trying to destroy the country? As far as I am aware, the Allies in the Second World War did not supply the Nazis with essential supplies so that they could continue the war effort against them.

Whatever Israel does in 5768 will be regarded as wrong. Israel must do what it deems as right and in the best interest of its people. In the eyes of many, Israel is expendable, as many in the West are concerned with guaranteeing oil and gas supplies at all costs. This will be a year where Israel has to go it alone, as the Americans are concerned with who will take over from George W. Bush. The Arabs are not going to give Bush the satisfaction of saying that he has solved the Middle East crisis, any more than the Iranians are going to give him the satisfaction of stabilizing the political dimension in Iraq.

In the last days of 5767, agents of the IDF Home Command collected from nearly every household the gas masks that had been previously distributed at the start of the Iraqi Scud offensive. There are two ways to look at this operation. One is that the risk of Israel being attacked in 5768 by weapons of mass destruction is very low; the other is that it was a mistake to collect them. It's a difficult equation, but our enemies are realists and they are aware of Israel's ultimate strength, often discussed and disguised as nuclear ambiguity.

I always remember a very wise former Israeli ambassador friend of mine, who obviously assumed that there was nothing ambiguous about the country's nuclear capability. He was convinced that it is this ambiguity that makes Israel's enemies think twice. He was probably right.

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