Israelis are critical of Abbas

RHONDA SPIVAK

Former ambassador to Israel and assistant secretary of state Martin Indyk remembers well President Clinton's abortive bid to foster a peace accord between Israel and the Palestinian leadership.

He also knows firsthand that the Palestinians often go against what others in the West see as their own best interests. "That's why they call it the Muddle East," he said, grinning.

On a warm Tel-Aviv evening, after giving a public lecture at Tel-Aviv University, Indyk offered up his candid assessment of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.

"I think Abbas has the right intentions, and that is very important, because I don't think Arafat had the right intentions, but Abbas doesn't have capabilities [to make peace], unless he has the capacity to control the territories. The West Bank is far too sensitive for Israel's security, for them [the Israelis] just to leave like they did in Gaza. It's problematic. Unless Abbas has the capacity, the problem won't have a solution.... If Abbas doesn't take control, then Iran will have control of the West Bank, through Hamas and other radicals.

"Everyone is looking to Jordan to get more involved, but the Jordanian involvement is problematic. The Jordanians don't want to control the West Bank and the Palestinians don't want them to. We'll have to see if a way can be found for their involvement," added Indyk, who is now the director of the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute in Washington.

Indyk thinks that what is required is an international force, of about 10,000 troops, to train the Palestinians and perform joint operations in the West Bank. This measure could gradually restore Israeli confidence in the viability of a partnership with the Palestinians. "Israel won't be convinced to give up the West Bank and the Arab parts of East Jerusalem, unless they feel there is a responsible [Palestinian] partner," he said.

Dr. Zvi Shtauber, director of the Institute for National Security Studies of Tel-Aviv University, is pessimistic about Abbas's ability to take control. In a lecture he gave at the university, he publicly supported Israeli efforts to strengthen Abbas, but after the lecture, when asked directly about the chances of Abbas being able to take control of the territories and "deliver the goods," he said that "the chances aren't high, but what else is there? He's all we've got."

Both academics like Strauber and average Israelis are unabashedly forthcoming about voicing a pessimistic assessment of Abbas and his ability to reach a peace accord in the present climate.

As Ami Haddad, a postal worker from Kfar Saba, said, "Abbas, Shmabbas, he's nothing. It's insanity to build him up. He won't be able to deliver. Both he and [Israeli Prime Minister] Ehud Olmert will be thrown to the dogs."

"Strengthening Abbas is a waste. There's no use," said Reuven Franco, a lawyer from Netanya.

Gabby Raphaeli, a retired contractor from Jerusalem, echoes similar sentiments: "Strengthening Abbas won't lead anywhere."

"If he [Abbas] tries to make peace, in the end he'll probably be murdered [by Palestinians]," his wife, Ruchamah, added.

David Ziv, a barber in Netanya, agreed, "There's no point strengthening Abbas. He's a weak leader. If he were a strong leader, he'd have gotten an army behind him, and Fatah wouldn't have been overrun so easily in Gaza.... Look, Fatah and Hamas keep killing each other. Soon, the Palestinians won't have enough land in which to bury each other."

Moyin Mozer, an Arab-Israeli taxi-driver near Akko, is skeptical of whether Abbas can take control of the West Bank, let alone the Gaza Strip. "Abbas is seen as an ally of the United States and Israel," he said. "Abbas and Muhammad Dahlan and other Fatah leaders are corrupt. They stole lots of money from the Palestinian people. Dahlan had an Israeli identity card and he had three or four bank accounts in Israel and he stole plenty. Arafat was a big thief and that's why Suha Arafat was left with so much money. Since Abbas is seen [by the Palestinian people] as corrupt, it's hard to see how he can ever be rehabilitated in their eyes. It won't work."

The recent findings of the Peace Index Survey, carried out in September, demonstrates just how pessimistic the Israeli population is about the possibilities for peace in the current climate.

According to the survey, a majority of Israelis think that Olmert has renewed political negotiations with Abbas simply to improve his own status, and not because conditions have emerged that increase the chances for a peace agreement.

The survey also found that a large majority of Israelis (84 per cent) consider Abbas too weak to sign a peace treaty, involving significant concessions, in the name of his people. Only a minority of Israelis believe that the current contacts between Olmert and Abbas have good chances of leading to a peace agreement. Voters from all the political parties in Israel are unanimous that the likelihood for an agreement is very low, less than 10 per cent.

Many Israelis believe that, if it weren't for the strong Israeli army presence in the West Bank, Hamas may have taken over there as well.

"When we [the Israeli army] patrol the Palestinian refugee camps, we go in and out all through the night. This wakes up the people in the camps, who can't sleep because of the noise we make. They look at us and I can see the hatred in their eyes, and it's not easy. But we do this at night to show a presence and to stop the smuggling of weapons and the build-up of arms. We don't want Hamas to take over," said Nathan, a soldier who was returning to duty in Ramallah, and did not want to give his last name.

Rhonda Spivak is a Winnipeg freelance writer who spends part of the year in Israel.

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