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Oct. 28, 2005
Israel's hard choices
Ha'aretz editor talks on post-disengagement.
CYNTHIA RAMSAY
Now that Israel has disengaged from Gaza, what will be Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon's next step toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict? Will there be a disengagement in the West Bank? What role
will the United States play in the diplomacy? These are a few of
the questions that Aluf Benn, diplomatic editor for Ha'aretz
newspaper, will tackle when he comes to Vancouver next month to
speak at Har El Synagogue and the Jewish Community Centre of Greater
Vancouver (JCC).
Benn has written extensively on Israeli politics, the country's
leadership and foreign relations. He has been published in newspapers
and magazines around the world, including Foreign Affairs,
the Economist, Die Zeit and India Weekly, and
he has given frequent interviews on BBC world service radio, CNN
and NBC. He travels regularly with the Israeli prime minister's
press corps.
When in Vancouver, Benn will speak on The Day After: Israel's Post-Disengagement
Agenda (Anticipating the Coming Election). In this talk, Benn said
he will discuss the opportunities and challenges facing Israel,
following the successful implementation of Sharon's disengagement
plan this past summer.
"I will discuss its consequences, both for Israel's international
stance and within its domestic arena," he said in an e-mail
interview. "I will discuss various options for the 'next stage'
in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. And I will also touch upon the
influence of U.S. President George W. Bush's doctrine of regional
moderation and democratization on Israel and its strategic environment."
If time allows, Benn said he would also like to talk about the Iranian
threat, possible consequences of the development on the Syria/Lebanon
front and American-Israeli bilateral relations.
One of the more interesting aspects of the political situation in
Israel has been Sharon's ability to change his views – for
example, to dismantle the settlements whose creation he strongly
supported – and survive politically. He has also managed to
increase his popularity in these difficult times, both at home and
abroad.
"Having followed Sharon closely for the fifth year now,"
Benn told the Independent, "I believe that his public
popularity and political survival stem from several sources: his
vast military and political experience and his touch for other people's
motives and actions; from his pragmatism and lack of ideological
commitment, beyond keeping Israel safe and strong; and from good
management capabilities, which his immediate predecessors lacked
(these include picking the right circle of advisors and ruling over
them successfully).
"At the same time," continued Benn, "one should remember
that Sharon has been at his best during national crises and he has
ruled the country during its longest and one of its worst crises.
"As for his survival, current polls indicate that the public
agrees with Sharon that there is no credible alternative to his
leadership, within the Likud or elsewhere. So far, he has withstood
all efforts to sidestep him. But one should also remember that all
of Israel's strong leaders fell from grace humiliated and, therefore,
Sharon's declared ambition – to retire peacefully following
a third term – is a considerable ambition," said Benn.
One of Sharon's more recent challenges has been Palestinian Authority
Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's willingness to include Hamas in the PA's
January 2006 elections.
"While Sharon has clearly shown both his readiness and his
ability to withdraw from territories and dismantle settlements,
he has yet to show his ability to negotiate with the Palestinians
rather than dictate his policies to them (as he has done in building
the security fence and withdrawing from Gaza)," said Benn.
"So far, he has treated PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas as a nuisance
and weakling, rather than as a serious partner for diplomacy.
"The PA's weakness is one of Israel's most complicated strategic
challenges, which cannot be resolved by force alone. Israel badly
needs a credible, coherent Palestinian policy. Hamas participation
in the PA elections has become a test case: Abbas believes that
by 'politicizing' the terrorists, he would unify the Palestinians
behind his policy of extracting Israeli concessions via negotiations,
rather than bombs. Israel believes that legitimizing Hamas will
ridicule the road map's main pillar, namely that eradicating terror
must precede any diplomatic process."
The road map is a two-year-old plan that was to lead, by 2005, to
a permanent two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
It was devised under the auspices of the Quartet (the United States,
the European Union, the United Nations and Russia) and still represents
a guide to reaching a peaceful settlement in the region.
As for whether an amicable solution can be found to the problem
of including Hamas in the PA elections, Benn is optimistic: "The
U.S., caught in the dilemma between its two principles – fighting
Arab terror and promoting Arab democracy – appears to agree
with Sharon in principle, while backing Abbas in practice. Given
America's arbiter position, I believe that some working compromise
will be found."
About other steps toward peace, there is less clarity, although
Benn believes that they will involve further disengagement by Israel.
"While Sharon fiercely denies any idea of a 'second disengagement'
in the [West Bank], I believe it's a credible option," said
Benn. "After all, he has already shown that his past statements
are not binding him.
"Several scenarios come to mind. First, a negotiated settlement
with Abbas for the creation of a Palestinian state within interim
borders, as mandated by the road map. This is less likely, however,
due to mistrust between both sides and the lack of American commitment
to push it.
"A second option is a further Israeli withdrawal in the West
Bank – including the removal of several more settlements. Sharon
has indicated publicly that not all the present settlements will
remain, while Israel must consolidate its hold over the main blocks
of settlements (especially around Jerusalem). Such a withdrawal
is definitely possible, but by no means imminent. It is dependent
upon domestic and external developments.
"A third option is a wait-and-see policy, which is more likely
in the coming [Israeli] electoral period, but may be difficult to
sustain after the election, due to international expectations and
pressure – the world has marked the precedent of full withdrawal
from Gaza. In conclusion, then, the summer's withdrawal will not
be the last, but the exact way to get there is still unclear."
Israel is scheduled to have elections in October 2006.
"A couple of months ago," said Benn, "the common
wisdom [in Israel] was that an early election is imminent, due to
Sharon's troubles within the Likud. However, following Sharon's
victory over Bibi Netanyahu at the party's central committee and
Shimon Peres's statement that Labor will stay in the coalition until
October 2006, the current government's staying chances appear stronger.
Several factors will dictate the electoral timetable: intra-Likud
intrigues, the fate of the 2006 budget bill and the Labor primary."
For those interested in more of Benn's insights, his Vancouver talk
takes place at the JCC Nov. 2, 7:30 p.m. It is co-sponsored by the
JCC's Adult Jewish Studies Institute and the Canada-Israel Committee.
Tickets are $12/$10/$5. Benn also speaks at Har El Synagogue, 1305
Taylor Way in West Vancouver, on Tuesday, Nov. 1, at 7:30 p.m. There
is no charge for this event.
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