Mideast Groundhog Day

Editorial

Not since the resumption of Palestinian violence in 2000 and arguably not since 1948 have Israelis and Palestinians stood at a moment as portentous as the next 60 days.

The promise of Palestinian elections to replace the late Yasser Arafat will determine whether peaceful coexistence is a tangible possibility or as remote as ever.

There is a danger in raising hopes too high. Israelis did that after 1993 and so were blindsided in 2000. Moreover, we would be foolish to think that Arafat was the only thing standing between Israel and peace. Arafat presided over a society that he constructed in his own image: corrupt, autocratic, violent, volatile, unpredictable and steeped in crude ideological anti-Semitism. His legacy will haunt us and the Palestinian people for a generation or more.

At the same time, developments do offer an unprecedented opportunity. Though Arafat was not the only thing standing between Israel and peace, he was the first thing.

Even so, many questions remain. Will elections even take place? Will the violent extremists of Hamas and the al-Aqsa Martyrs and others participate or obstruct? Will (perceived) moderates be victorious or will they be sidelined by extremists or assassinations (which may have been the intent of Sunday's violence during Mahmoud Abbas's visit to the official mourning site in Gaza)? And how will Israeli actions or inaction influence the process?

Pro-Palestinian commentators are asserting that Israel will now be forced to address the Palestinians' legitimate demands, since they can no longer couch their refusal to negotiate in anti-Arafat excuses. They're correct. Just as the future amenability of the Palestinians will become evident in the next 60 days, so will that of the Israelis. But while these critics have insisted that the Israeli refusal to deal with Arafat was an excuse to ignore Palestinian demands in general, the next weeks will show the opposite: that Israel has been waiting for just such a moment, to show that, as with Anwar Sadat, given a willing partner for peace, Israel is willing to offer massive compromises. Unless, of course, the Palestinians offer up an uncompromising extremist (or if the election process fails).

In a perverse twist on Groundhog Day, we should know by early January whether Israel will face a springtime of hope and peace or a further elongation of this miserable four-year winter of violence.

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