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July 27, 2012
Stockpile has Israel nervous
Syria’s chemical weapons cache concerns experts on terrorism.
LINDA GRADSTEIN THE MEDIA LINE
During the first Gulf War in the winter of 1990, Israelis huddled in sealed rooms and donned gas masks as Iraqi president Saddam Hussein lobbed Scud missiles at the Jewish state. Israeli intelligence knew that Hussein had a stockpile of chemical weapons and was worried that he might use them.
Now, more than 20 years later, Israelis are again worried about chemical weapons. This time, it is chemical weapons that the international community believes Syria possesses. If – or when, according to many analysts – the regime of Bashar al-Assad falls, that stockpile of weapons could be up for grabs and terrorist groups including Hezbollah and al-Qaeda will be the first ones with their hands out.
“There will be pressure from Hezbollah and other organizations to get some chemical weapons,” Ronen Hoffman of the Interdisciplinary Centre (IDC) told this reporter. “They are like eagles, just waiting for the opportunity to swoop down on their prey. It’s an unbelievable opportunity for them.”
Jordan’s King Abdullah II also expressed concern that al-Qaeda could seize some of these weapons in an interview with CNN.
Israeli officials will not comment publicly on events in Syria, saying only, as did Defence Minister Ehud Barak, that “Israel is carefully monitoring events in Syria.” But, privately, Israeli officials are concerned that Assad’s fall could destabilize the region and give Hezbollah and Iran more power.
The Israeli-Syrian border has been Israel’s quietist border since the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973. If Assad falls, sectarian tensions between the majority Sunnis and the minority Alawites, who currently rule the country, could lead to chaos in Syria. During that chaos, it’s possible that Lebanon-based Hezbollah, a terrorist organization with a large fighting force and massive arsenal, could obtain some of the chemical weapons.
“This could be a real danger for Israel,” said Ephraim Kam of the INSS think tank. “Even if Hezbollah doesn’t use the weapons against Israel immediately, it would give Hezbollah a large increase in deterrent power, and Israel would have to think twice before striking Hezbollah.”
Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in 2006 after terrorist operatives kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. The 34-day conflict left 1,300 Lebanese and 165 Israelis dead. Israel destroyed much of Hezbollah’s short–range rocket capability, although Israeli intelligence officials say Hezbollah has since rebuilt and now has more weapons with greater range and payload capacity. Some estimates peg the number of Hezbollah missiles at more than 30,000. Hezbollah also blames Israel for the assassination in 2008 of senior Hezbollah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh who was killed by a car bomb in Damascus.
But some Arab analysts say that it has not been proven that Syria has chemical weapons, or that Hezbollah is bent on getting them.
“Look at what happened in Iraq when the world insisted that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, which was one of the main reasons for invading the country,” said Ayman Khalil of the Centre for Research on Arms Control and Security in Jordan. “And even if the current regime has chemical weapons, they will not be in the position of utilizing them in the current conflict. You have to have a trained group of military and technical experts to use them.”
Khalil also said that Hezbollah is trying to achieve international legitimacy as a member of the Lebanese government and it is not in its interest to acquire a non-conventional capability.
Other experts say that the current fear over chemical weapons shows the mistake that the international community made by not intervening in Syria.
“The international community must organize a transition of power in Syria,” argued Nadim Shehadi of the Chatham House in London. “For a long time, people were so afraid of what would happen in the aftermath of Assad. Now there is a change in outlook which is much more damaging to the regime. Assad staying in power has become the worse option.”
Israeli analysts say that chemical weapons in the hands of any radical group is dangerous.
“One option is to try to attack the chemical weapons and destroy them,” Kam suggested. “Alternatively, the U.S., which has a connection with the opposition, must ensure that the chemical weapons remain intact for whoever succeeds Assad.”
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