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Jan. 13, 2006
Of sadness and hope
Sharon's condition lamented by Canadians.
PAT JOHNSON
Sadness and steadfastness mark the Canadian reaction to the political
upheaval in Israel caused by Ariel Sharon's ill health. Jewish and
Zionist opinion leaders here told the Independent this week
that, while the Israeli prime minister's health has thrown the political
landscape into confusion, a significant consensus has developed
in Israel that will not be easily undone.
Israel is a democratic state with a strong history of orderly transition
of power and the apparent loss of Sharon, who has dominated national
politics and served as an international lightning rod, will likely
not have a fundamental impact on the policy direction in which the
country is headed, say Canadian and local observers.
Marc Gold, national CEO of the Canada-Israel Committee (CIC), expressed
a sense of grief.
"There's a tremendous sense of sadness in Israel and beyond,
because Ariel Sharon has played a major role in so many of Israel's
issues, both politically and militarily," Gold said, adding
that the policy directions Sharon has championed seem destined to
continue.
"There's a large group within Israel, a large consensus in
the middle," said Gold. "Israelis have become disillusioned
with the vision of both the extreme left and the extreme right."
Gold said there's no way to predict the impact the situation will
have on the Israeli national elections slated for March, but said
he hopes the coming weeks see stability and security. While the
Israeli political infrastructure is strong, Gold fears outside forces
may try to destabilize the country in its time of transition.
"That's my greatest concern," Gold said.
But Gold expressed confidence in the acting prime minister.
"Ehud Olmert is a smart, experienced, practical man with a
firm commitment to continuing in the path that Sharon and Kadima
laid out," he said.
Sadness at Sharon's health situation but optimism for the future
of the country was expressed by Yossi Darr, an Israeli who is the
Vancouver shaliach (emissary) for the Jewish National Fund.
"What Sharon has done is so impactful for the state of Israel,"
said Darr. "He has been one of the most important leaders –
regardless whether you agree with him or not – for the last
57 years.
"Ariel Sharon has done something that only one prime minister
has ever done and he was about to do something that no prime minister
has done before him," Darr said. "It is to define the
borders of the state of Israel. For the first time in the history
of the state of Israel, after [David] Ben-Gurion accepted the '47
partition plan, no prime minister has said, 'These are the borders
of the state of Israel.' All the time it was, 'Let's see what the
negotiations will lead to and then we will make the borders and
then we will declare the borders.' "
Lenard Cohen, a political science professor at Simon Fraser University,
said a political transition of this sort can result in a reconsideration
of policy.
"It's a time of uncertainty, but it's a time of opportunity,"
Cohen said.
Even so, he said, there seems to be an unusual degree of agreement
in Israel about the path the country is on.
"There are so many divisions in Israeli politics that it's
hard to use the word consensus," said Cohen. But voters seem
relatively content with the direction of Israeli policy toward the
Palestinians, he said. Nevertheless, without Sharon at the helm,
the new political grouping faces a tougher climb. Known commodities
like Binyamin Netanyahu, Cohen said, could benefit from the changed
landscape.
Judy Mandelman, a local grassroots Zionist activist of many years,
also expressed sadness over Sharon's stroke.
"It's really sad that it's happened," said Mandelman,
adding that Sharon conveyed an image of strength.
Politically, the first question, Mandelman said, is whether the
new Kadima party can hold together without the glue of Sharon's
charismatic leadership.
"He's been the driving force behind all the changes,"
Mandelman said, noting that the umbrella Sharon created with Kadima
– having drawn leaders from the left and the right into a new
centrist coalition – will be stretched to unify without the
force of Sharon's personality. "They've got so many different
philosophical partners in there."
Mandelman suggested that Olmert, should he win the leadership of
Kadima, could be in a good position to win the election, saying
that Labor party leader Amir Peretz is a relatively unknown quantity,
while Netanyahu, the Likud leader, is a "lightning rod for
not good things."
If Olmert can keep the broad coalition together, Mandelman suggests,
Kadima could still win the election, though perhaps with fewer seats
than Sharon would have amassed.
Israel's "new" man
Olmert, the acting Israeli prime minister, is a career politician
who was first elected to the Knesset at the age of 28. He upended
the political establishment when he defeated legendary Jerusalem
mayor Teddy Kollek in 1993, and ran the city for 10 years. During
the first half of his mayoral term, Olmert also retained his seat
as a member of the Knesset, serving simultaneously at two levels
of government.
Olmert was one of Sharon's first colleagues to follow him into the
new Kadima splinter party.
Unlike Sharon, former Labor party prime minister Ehud Barak and
a raft of other Israeli leaders, Olmert does not have an extensive
military history.
Though he is closely associated with Sharon and his legacy, Olmert
is a former competitor with the prime minister, having sought the
Likud leadership in 2003. He served as Sharon's deputy and minister
of industry and trade.
Olmert, 60, is a strong supporter of Sharon's disengagement initiative.
In fact, Olmert was the first major figure in Likud to express support
for the idea of a unilateral withdrawal from some disputed territories.
This precursor to Sharon's revolutionary disengagement plan was
symptomatic of the role Olmert has played in Sharon's government,
floating trial balloons before the prime minister made major policy
announcements.
Olmert graduated from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, having
studied psychology, philosophy and law. Olmert's father, Mordechai,
was a member of the Knesset in Israel's early years. Ehud Olmert's
brother, Yossi, a columnist with the Jerusalem Post and Yediot
Aharanot and a political operative in his own right, visited
Vancouver in 2004 and was interviewed at the time by the Independent
(which was then called the Bulletin).
Elections are slated for March. Olmert is expected to contest the
race, but it remains to be seen whether he will face a fight for
his party's leadership.
Pat Johnson is editor of MVOX Multicultural Digest, www.mvox.ca.
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