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January 14, 2005
Optimism seen in PA election
Violence still popular, say observers, but progress more likely
with Abbas.
PAT JOHNSON
Palestinians still believe violence could be the means to their
political ends and the biggest challenge facing the new president
of the Palestinian Authority will be to get voters to buy into peaceful
negotiations with Israel, says a senior independent Palestinian
public opinion expert.
Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Centre for Policy and
Security Research, brought good and bad news to a conference call
hours before polls opened Sunday. Predicting that Mahmoud Abbas
would be the certain winner, Shikaki told Canadian media, including
the Bulletin, that Palestinians are more optimistic than
at any recent time.
"Palestinians feel today a lot more optimistic about things
in general, but certainly with regard to the peace process, since
the death of Yasser Arafat," Shikaki said. At the same time,
he pointed out, opposition to violence has not risen with the level
of optimism.
"Overall, Palestinians continue to believe in the utility of
violence, that violence pays, that the Gaza withdrawal is a victory
for violence," he said.
Aside from the attitude toward violence, Shikaki said, other markers
of Palestinian optimism and good faith are increasing. He said the
main demands of Palestinian voters include a ceasefire and a return
to the peace process, improved economic conditions and the enforcement
of law and order. Though he correctly predicted Abbas's landslide
victory, Shikaki noted there was not much of an alternative for
voters.
"There is really very little choice here," he said. Hamas
opted not to participate in the election, meaning Fatah, the party
of Arafat and Abbas, is the only significant political movement
represented. Seven candidates sought the post, but Abbas's only
serious challenge, such as it was, came from Mustafa Barghouti.
Shikaki places Abbas at the centre of the Palestinian political
establishment.
"He is one of the founding fathers of the national movement,"
Shikaki said. "He has been a senior figure – number two
– on the PLO hierarchy for a very long time. His own political
experience has been socialized by the conflicts of Arab political
culture in the region around Palestine."
Even so, the landslide should not be taken as symptomatic of a notable
shift in the political climate. Despite voters' endorsement, Abbas
remains an enigmatic figure who is not usually perceived as charismatic.
"None of these candidates really excite people as individuals
because they don't know them," Shikaki said of Abbas's challengers.
"And Mahmoud Abbas, who has been known, has never been able
to excite anybody."
Moreover, while Arafat had near-dictatorial powers as president,
changes to the Palestinian political structure have taken away much
of the presidency's power.
"It's not exactly a ceremonial office like it is in Israel,
but it's not powerful any more at all," said Shikaki. "All
the functions of security, money and bureaucracy are under the power
of the cabinet and the prime minister and not under the control
of the president."
The president, however, appoints the prime minister.
Shikaki said the real measure of Palestinian political maturity
will come during the parliamentary elections slated for the coming
months. If Hamas and other militant agencies are able to be integrated
into the political process, Shikaki sees hope for long-term peace.
"Once [they are] integrated into the political system, I think
a deal will be possible on disarming and dissolving their militias,"
he said.
The integration and disarmament of violent terrorist groups will
be dictated, in part, by the progress Palestinians see not only
in relations with Israel but internally, said Shikaki.
Regardless of the co-operation of other parties, Abbas's regime
is likely to reflect a change in course simply because of the new
leader's nature.
"Abbas is different from Arafat," said Shikaki. "Contrary
to Arafat, [Abbas] doesn't want to accumulate power in his hands.
This is something that is going to be very useful for Palestinian
democracy. Because of his willingness to delegate authority, because
of his willingness to integrate and co-opt forces into the political
system, all of this will be very helpful to Palestinian democracy."
In addition to Shikaki, the news conference, which was organized
by the Canada-Israel Committee, featured a leading Israeli journalist
and commentator. Natan Guttman, Washington correspondent for the
Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz, said Israeli leaders are optimistic
about Abbas's role.
"Abu Mazen [Abbas's nom de guerre] is a well-known figure
in Israel," said Guttman. "He is appreciated by the Israeli
government and has probably a lot of support within the Israeli
public as well. He is known as a moderate, but we should note that
in this last week or two,... Abu Mazen did have a few statements
that made a few people in Israel worry. He talked about protecting
Palestinian gunmen from Israeli attacks. He spoke about the right
of return, all of these hot button issues that disturb Israelis
usually, even though it should be said the Israeli government and
the Israeli people understand that this is more election talk and
they still see Abu Mazen as a possible partner for negotiation,
as a Palestinian moderate who can reform the Palestinian Authority
and can act against terrorism."
The Palestinians, Guttman noted, are not the only people with a
new government. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon introduced his
new national unity government this week, which includes Sharon's
Likud as well as the Labor party and United Torah Judaism. Together,
the coalition should have enough votes in the Knesset to pursue
Sharon's disengagement plan.
If the Gaza withdrawal results in the PA taking responsibility for
civil society in Gaza, Israel will be encouraged to take further
steps, said Guttman.
"If the Israelis see that the Palestinian Authority is fighting
terrorism after the disengagement, they will see the fruits of their
disengagement and be willing probably to go forward for another
move [toward disengagement] in the West Bank."
Public opinion polls show more than 65 per cent of Israelis support
disengagement from Gaza.
In terms of democratization in the Palestinian Authority, Guttman
said the election represents progress, but North American observers
should not expect to see familiar hallmarks of our own political
systems.
"When we talk about democracy, whether it's in Iraq or Afghanistan
or the Palestinian Authority or other places in the Middle East,
it's not the American democracy that we know," he said. "There
is an understanding in the Middle East of the need for democracy
and for freedom, but it won't look like democracy over here."
Pat Johnson is a B.C. journalist and commentator.
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