Caveats to Syrian aid

Editorial

The United Nations refugee agency now estimates that 850,000 Syrian refugees have fled that country. The number will likely rise above a million in the coming months and a further 2.5 million are internally displaced – in a country of 21 million. At least 70,000 are reported to have been killed.

On Monday, the European Union opted to support Syrian rebels by providing “non-lethal support.” Britain had pressed for providing more support to the opposition forces by loosening the arms embargo against Syria. However, foreign ministers of other European countries opted not to go that far, instead authorizing provision of support in the form of training and protective equipment.

The reluctance of Western countries to become involved in what is being termed a civil war in Syria is understandable. The dictator Bashar al-Assad will be ejected eventually, after untold numbers of his citizens are murdered. But that is almost certain not to be the end, but the end of the beginning. Realistic fears are already being expressed that the fall of Assad will result in revenge violence and sectarian war, with members of the Allawite minority, to which Assad belongs, likely to be deeply endangered.

It is difficult, if not inhumane, for world leaders to stand by while Assad continues his violent repression of the rebellion. It is also, however, prudent for other countries to understand that even Assad’s departure is unlikely to resolve the conflict. Assad’s defeat would be a first step but, in addition to sectarian and revenge violence, there would also be a battle over the kind of country Syria would become post-Assad.

In truth, nobody is entirely sure of the exact composition of the opposition rebel movement. There are, to be sure, those among the opposition who would seek a peaceful, pluralist and perhaps democratic Syria. The question is whether those forces could overpower or outnumber those that seek to create in Syria an Iranian-style theocracy.

Europe’s move to provide support to the opposition is a positive step. There should be, however, strings attached to any aid that would encourage post-Assad leadership to commit to democracy, pluralism and peace. Extracting such promises from an amorphous and heterogeneous rebel group like the Syrian opposition is perhaps fruitless and may be meaningless, but if the West is going to engage in the Syrian conflict in any respect, it is the absolute least Western governments should demand.

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