Tense times in Lebanon

BENJAMIN JOFFE-WALT THE MEDIA LINE

Lebanese leaders referred to Israeli “aggression” as a “violation of Lebanese sovereignty” – in which an Israeli patrol crossed into Lebanon to trim trees despite orders from United Nations peacekeepers to stop.

Israeli leaders described it as an “ambush,” a “gross violation,” a “murderous attack” and a “violent provocation” – initiated in response to “routine maintenance duties” and “with no provocation from our territory.”

The rhetoric on both sides is alive and well and, while the UN has confirmed that the tree in question was indeed on the Israeli side of the border and that Israel coordinated its tree trimming with their members, the series of events that triggered the deaths of an Israeli battalion commander, three Lebanese soldiers and a journalist early this month is unlikely to be cleared up anytime soon.

What is clear is that very shortly Lebanon is set to face what some analysts are predicting will be the beginnings of another civil war and which others are predicting will be the largest political crisis since the country’s former leader was assassinated five years ago. In February 2005, Lebanon’s former prime minister, Rafiq Al-Hariri, and 22 others were killed by a 1,000-kilogram TNT explosion on the Beirut seafront. The murder was followed by an international outcry and led to political change in Lebanon, culminating in the withdrawal of Syrian troops after 29 years in the country.

The late Al-Hariri opposed Syria’s presence in Lebanon and supported the disarming of Hezbollah, a Shia militia more powerful than the Lebanese army. Al-Hariri’s murder has been widely blamed on elements from Hezbollah and/or Syrian intelligence.

The UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon, based in The Hague, has been investigating the assassination and has yet to issue any indictments. But Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Sayyid Hasan Na’srallah, announced last month that the tribunal was set to indict Hezbollah members in the assassination.

The Shia militia’s powerful political wing currently sits on a governing coalition along with the U.S.-backed, Sunni-led Future Movement headed by Sa’ad Al-Hariri, son of the slain leader. Lebanese analysts say the possibility of governing partners being accused by an international court of the assassination has created a state of a political instability.

“I think what happened ... at the border is a reflection of the situation in the region,” said Fadi Abi Allam, president of the Beirut-based Permanent Peace Movement. “We are in a state of war – both within Lebanon and outside – and everyone [is] trying to protect themselves, so there is a real escalation of tensions.

“The issue is not just Palestine, we are in a state of war here in Lebanon itself,” Allam continued. “The Al-Hariri assassination is a big issue. To date, there is no solution from the international community and everybody is waiting to see what will happen and how this will affect internal politics and the situation in Israel.”

Since Na’srallah announced the probability that Hezbollah members will be indicted, Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah and a number of other Arab leaders have all made visits.

“Both Syria and Saudi Arabia are trying to keep the lid on what might happen when Hezbollah is implicated,” said Eugène Richard Sensenig-Dabbous, a political scientist at Lebanon’s Notre Dame University. “Things are very tense, but it seems that nobody wants violence.

“At the moment, we have a grand coalition which includes Hezbollah,” he said. “If [they are] accused of assassinating the former prime minister, then how can all the parties stay at the table with someone who assassinated our leader? It’s almost impossible.”

Na’srallah attempted to deflect the potential damage of a UN indictment of Hezbollah members by openly accusing Israel of the 2005 assassination in a pre-recorded message claiming that Israeli agents arranged the Al-Hariri killing in order to exploit Lebanon’s Sunni-Shia tensions. Evidence to back up such claims, Na’srallah said, would be presented at a press conference.

Sensenig-Dabbous said that most in Lebanon hope for the best. “Everyone suspected from the beginning that Syria and Hezbollah knew about it and were possibly involved, but there are taboos in this country ... you don’t criticize Hezbollah.

“If Na’srallah was responsible, that’s bad,” he continued. “But if Na’srallah was not responsible, that’s even worse, because it means that the leader of Lebanon’s only armed faction does not have control over his own men. It would mean that Hezbollah is not solidified and that the leadership cannot deliver in any future peace deal between Syria, Hezbollah and Israel.”

But Sari Hanafi, a political economist at the American University in Beirut, was more optimistic. “I’m not sure what will happen,” he said. “It will depend on the actors involved, but both main players – the Future Movement and Hezbollah – don’t want to escalate and want to put this issue into the drawer. So I am rather optimistic and I don’t think this will break the coalition – never mind cause another civil war.”

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