Sagging support for Hamas

DAVID ROSENBERG AND MICHAEL GRUBB THE MEDIA LINE

Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic movement, faces sagging popularity and a vexing dilemma over whether to keep up the war against Israel, even as it staged a Dec. 14 rally in Gaza City’s central square to mark its 23rd anniversary to show the world that it remains both popular and firmly in control.

The mass gathering in Green Square drew tens of thousands, a crowd on par with previous years’ celebrations according to some reports, while Hamas spokespeople said that the number was record breaking. Other events were held on Gaza’s border with Israel, while at the main rally, senior Hamas leader Mahmoud A-Zahar and others burned Israeli flags. In a display of Hamas’ preeminence, other Palestinian factions attended – though not members from Hamas’ arch-rival, Fatah, which controls the West Bank.

With so much at stake – and the region buffeted by the first big rain storms of the winter – Hamas wasn’t leaving attendance to chance. Motorcyclists displaying the group’s green flag were dispatched across Gaza to coax people into attending and buses were chartered to ship large groups of students and women supporters to the rally.

Admired by some as the standard-bearer of resistance to Israel and reviled by others as a terrorist gang, Hamas has emerged as a key player in Palestinian and Arab politics and the undisputed ruler of Gaza since seizing control in 2007. But its evolution from a small resistance group to a governing power has saddled it with the fundamental dilemma of how to continue the war with Israel while building a functioning and stable mini-state in Gaza.

“Their animosity towards Israel is clear. It is an important plank of what Hamas is all about … but this doesn’t mean in practical terms that it will realize the destruction of the state of Israel,” said Maha Azzam, associate fellow at the London-based Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program. “Its goal is to build up its strength overall as a political movement.”

While its 1987 founding charter calls for Israel’s destruction, Hamas has maintained a tense quiet with Israel since Israeli forces invaded the group’s Gaza stronghold almost two years ago. Recently, Ismail Haniyya, the Hamas prime minister, called a rare news conference to say the organization planned to continue the truce and would even accept a peace treaty with Israel if it were put to a referendum vote.

“We will accept the outcome of any referendum, even if it contradicts our policies and convictions,” he told reporters.

But many Israelis are skeptical that Hamas has turned the corner and is truly on its way to accepting the existence of the Jewish state. Many believe the group is still licking its wounds from Israel’s Operation Cast Lead two years ago, which left about 1,200 Palestinians dead, and has been rearming for the next round.

Meir Litvak, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University, said Hamas is committed to some kind of accommodation with Israel, but the policy is a tactical effort to square the contradictory goals of fighting Israel, winning recognition from the United States and other powers, Islamizing Gaza and governing Gaza effectively.

“You can’t fight Israel and succeed at governing. Getting international recognition while fighting is also a problem. Suppressing Fatah in Gaza ensures that Hamas is suppressed by Fatah in the West Bank,” Litvak said. “They haven’t found a golden formula, so they engage in tactical compromises.”

In some respects, Hamas has chalked up significant victories. The siege Israel imposed on Gaza after Hamas seized control has yet to bring down, or even weaken, its hold on the enclave. Indeed, Israel was forced last June to ease the blockade after its commandoes killed nine people aboard a ship trying to break the siege. This month, the United States abandoned efforts to coax Israeli Prime Minster Binyamin Netanyahu into freezing West Bank settlements as a means of reviving peace talks between Israel and the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority (PA).

“They failed to get a freeze, and this will give more power to Hamas. It proved that these talks with Israel are nonsense and that the only medium for ending the occupation is through resistance,” said Nashat Aqtash, a communications professor at Birzeit University in the West Bank, who advised Hamas in the 2006 elections. “In the West Bank, Hamas is gaining more power and [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas is losing popularity.”

Nevertheless, Hamas has struggled to retain popular support. It trounced Fatah in 2006 elections, but opinion polls now usually show it to be trailing, and Hamas activists in the PA-ruled West Bank have been hunted down. A survey taken by the Palestinian Centre for Public Opinion in November showed that only 24.3 percent of respondents had “confidence” in the Hamas leadership, compared with 50.9 percent for Abbas.

“In general, people here hate Hamas,” Mahmoud, a 21-year-old Gaza City resident, said. “Hamas’ popularity has sunk to such a low level that it’s limited to members and their families.”

Litvak said he was skeptical about polls, but estimated that Hamas’ core supporters accounted for about a fifth of the Palestinian population. In the long run, he said, events may work in Hamas’ favor if the PA fails to reach an agreement on peace and a Palestinian state through negotiations with Israel.

Over the past month, the Hamas-led Ministry of Interior has been conducting what it calls “the Citizen’s Dignity and Policeman’s Prestige” campaign. Ostensibly organized to improving relations between the local gendarmerie and Gazans, many believe it is aimed at shoring up Hamas’ popularity. In the main streets and squares of Gaza, huge pictures have been erected showing Hamas policemen helping old people and children cross the jammed streets. Others show high-ranking officers shaking hand with ordinary people and exchanging smiles. Policemen also visited schools and associations.

“I don’t think this campaign will increase Hamas’ popularity, especially after the repressive moves against the liberal community and other political factions over the past four years,” said Mai, a 25-year-old resident of the Deir El-Balah refugee camp in southern Gaza. “The campaign is connected to the celebration of the Hamas’ anniversary. It needs to show an increase in its popularity.”

– With reporting by Sami Ajrami in Gaza

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