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April 20, 2007
Some difficult lessons
Herzog analyzes what can be learned about Israel.
REBECA KUROPATWA
Is Israel's position in the Middle East today one of opportunities
or one of threats? The answer, according to Shira Herzog, is both.
The Israeli-born Herzog is a columnist with the Globe and Mail
and co-host of the weekly television program Israel Today.
She also works with nongovernmental organizations to increase meaningful
dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians, dividing her time between
Israel and Canada. The Canadian Friends of Hebrew University presented
a talk by Herzog in Winnipeg April 5.
Herzog said that in the Middle East, there are four parallel, ongoing
and interconnected stories. There is, she observed, "the Israeli
story – internal Israeli politics, how Israel views itself,
the options it has and what its people want. And then there is the
Palestinian story – their internal relations and the nature
of their leadership. The broader regional picture is what Arab governments
think and say, and current regional tensions. Last is the international
story, which is dominated by the United States."
We can never talk about what Israel wants or needs in isolation
of any of these other stories, said Herzog. "If we do, we get
lost in the minutia of the details and lose sight of the bigger
picture.
"I don't believe Israel can have long-term security and can
exist in the long term as a Jewish and democratic state if it continues
to occupy or be in the West Bank or Gaza," she said. "It
might sound like a lot of the points I am making are contradictory,
but that is the situation – welcome to the Middle East, and
to the way the Haggadah works, and talmudic disputations."
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the core cause of tensions
in the Middle East, according to Herzog. "It is critical for
Israel, but not for the whole of the Middle East. It is not going
to put an end to Sunni-Shia violence, or make the threat of Iran's
nuclear capability disappear."
Most significant to the present day is that nothing can happen in
the short term, said Herzog. "This is largely because of the
internal, political circumstances in Israel and on the Palestinian
side. The majority of the Israeli population think that the current
administration is too weak to undertake any serious political peace
initiatives. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has about three per cent
support in popular rating – a record anywhere, even in Israel."
In Israel today, there is smarting over the effects of the war in
Lebanon and an unprecedented crisis of confidence in government
leadership, according to Herzog. "This is difficult to admit,"
she said, "but is because of the clear errors in judgment and
flaws in the decision-making of the last war and because of numerous
police investigations into [the] wrongdoings of too many senior
people. When confidence in the military is also lacking, that is
pretty serious."
Herzog suggested that there are similarly serious concerns looming
over the Palestinian leadership. "Neither Hamas nor Fatah can
govern alone," she said. "That is why they formed a national
unity government, with the backing of the Saudis."
She conceded that there are no good or bad choices. "It all
comes back to the fundamental question of what is in Israel's best
interest - to stay there [in Gaza and the West Bank] or to find
every possible way to get out."
Why is [American Secretary of State] Condoleeza Rice going to Israel
eight times in one year, asked Herzog. "Is it because she really
believes that it is important to get Israelis and Palestinians talking,
toward a two-state solution, or is it because she feels a need to
satisfy so-called moderate Arab governments, given what is going
on in Iran and Iraq? No one is sure, but without an actively engaged
and committed [American] president, she is limited in what she can
achieve – and this is not high on his [President Bush's] priority
list right now."
One hard lesson the Israelis recently learned is that time is not
always on their side, said Herzog. "The army internally admitted
that they didn't do as well in Lebanon as they might have, because
for the last six years, their focus was on daily policing activities
in the territories."
However, she pointed out, "although the government didn't do
a very good job of taking care of the million people who were in
shelters for a month, nonprofit institutions did, community agencies
did, citizens did and the Israeli corporate community did. That
is ultimately where the quality of life in any society is created.
The opportunity we have is to identify with and strengthen the people,
the future and the quality of life for Israel as a Jewish state
and as a democracy."
Rebeca Kuropatwa is a Winnipeg freelance writer.
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